Monday, September 17, 2007

Heisman Sense of Reason

I'm not going to lie. Part of me is incredibly giddy about last weekend. But I promised when I started watching the 2007 Heisman race that I would avoid any personal bias as much as possible. One of the reasons I developed this little formula is because I wanted to see if Matty Ice's numbers were my own jaded glory or actually worthy for a trip to New York.

The sample size has been pretty small for the first few weeks. For starters, no one has played even balanced three (or two games, JDB). Perhaps as Ryan gets the cupcakes that others have started with, his ranking will go up on the offensive impact/performance scale. The problem here is that intangibles aren't measurable. But, that was kind of the point of starting this. If the voters went by those intangibles, every thing would be completely different.

So, I have eliminated some folks off of the previous lists due to that fact. Mike Hart, even though he showed up to play on Saturday against the Irish, was not factored in the Heisman standings. As things change in the next few weeks of the Wolverines schedule, it may be worth putting him back in there because, without Chad Henne, Hart will be the reason.

As things change more in the weeks when games matter, I will be able to add and take players off the list. Right now, because of the schedule differences, I have removed the Strength of Schedule factors from the formula. Here's the way the numbers come out.

1. Tim Tebow (Florida, QB) 6.050
2. Brian Brohm (Louisville, QB) 5.753
3. Ray Rice (Rutgers, RB)5.089
4. Steve Slaton (WVU, RB) 5.024
5. Matt Ryan (BC, QB) 4.535
6. Darren McFadden (Arkansas, RB) 4.523
7. Colt Brennan (Hawaii, QB)4.317
8. Colt McCoy (Texas, QB) 4.038
9. John David Booty (USC, QB) 3.633

Let me try to get past the numbers a little bit so the 14 readers of this can actually see what happened. First off, without the SOS factor, Brohm and McFadden's losses over the weekend have yet to hurt their standing. Later in the season when the sample is bigger and I can put in all of the schedules, these rankings will likely drop just enough (certainly for Brohm to fall from 2nd).

Second, there is a little bit greater bonus for running touchdowns then passing touchdowns (because, no matter how good the QB is, you have to give some credit to the receiver). This is what propels Tebow to the top of the list. The Gators have a total of 21 offensive touchdowns this year, Tebow was involved in more than half including five on the ground.

If Florida can beat LSU, I don't think I'll be the only one with Tebow in New York City. It's hard to say so early if this will hold up as they get to the SEC schedule, but I'm intrigued.

I mentioned on the first posts about the Heisman that there were bonuses associated with BCS teams. This is what is keeping Colt Brennan low on the list. The way Colt McCoy has played, he just might be the next person off the top ten to make room for one of the two Sooners who have been driving that offense.

I'll update the stats next week and we'll see how it goes. The Bleachers poll will be up tomorrow after a few more of the "experts" get their top tens in.

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