Thursday, October 18, 2007

Heisman Watch - Halfway There

Like the BCS Computers, the name is just attached to the number at the end of the row. I just wanted to put that waiver up before you see the list I'm about to post.

Things have changed since last I posted this. For example, you won't find Colt McCoy or JDB anywhere near the list. You will see some new faces, urged by a panel of the BCRC/Bleachers Poll Voters.

Remember that this formula gives the most weight to offensive production and the player who has the highest percentage of his teams total offense. I'm not buying the Defensive Tackle theory. I just can't do it. If he was meant to win it, I wouldn't be doing a formula and no one would be discussing a "wide open race."

1. Dennis Dixon (Oregon, QB) 10.007
2. Tim Tebow (Florida, QB) 8.493
3. Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech, WR) 7.983
4. Andre Woodson(Kentucky, QB) 7.858
5. Chase Daniel (Missouri, QB) 6.684
6. Mike Hart (Michigan, RB)6.601
7. Matt Ryan (BC, QB) 6.461
8. Ray Rice (Rutgers, RB)6.444
9. Darren McFadden (Arkansas, RB)4.951
10. Colt Brennan (Hawaii, QB) 3.310
11. DeSean Jackson (Cal, WR) 3.133

For arguments sake, it was asked that I also run the numbers on Graham Harrell, but I have a feeling that he will only be in the middle of the pack for the same reason that Crabtree is only at third: the way the offense is spread out. Ultimately, you can knock Tebow and Crabtree off this list (unless Tebow pulls off a miracle and the Gators, like, obliterate LSU in the SEC Championship Game) for being underclassmen.

The few people I have shown this two were shocked about Dixon being so high. I was too when I first press compute, but think about it. He has 21 touchdowns (passing and rushing) and only two turnovers. They have one loss that comes to the conference front runner and it was only in the last few minutes.

And if Oregon goes to the Roses, it'll be obvious why.

Now, Matt Ryan, H&L's own, factors right into the middle of the pack. But, as it stands right now, he'll pick up lots of advantages in three of the four categories plus the bonus. The lesson: you have to win. Chase Daniel, Mike Hart, Woodson and even the Texas Tech duo are in the same position.

Win, win efficiently, and the number will take care of itself.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for running Crabtree for me... could be the first legit shot at the Heisman for a WR since Larry Fitz. He'll be fun to watch the next few seasons.