Wednesday, November 7, 2007

The Bowl Picture

Most of us are wondering where this loss to FSU puts us in the bowl picture. As evidenced by our previous bowl selections, BC walks a tedious line. If we do exceptionally well, they have to put us in a BCS bowl, but after that, the slope falls quickly, and we could end up in Nashville or (god forbid) Boise if we aren't careful. So here is my quick breakdown of where we will go if...

... we win out, win the ACC Champ. game:

We go to the Orange Bowl. Virtually all hopes of playing in New Orleans on the 7th for the National Championship are gone, it would take a monumental collapse from a half a dozen teams to get us there.

... we win out, but lose the ACC Champ. game:
This is tricky, because we would be 11-2. Conventional wisdom says we could be in the running for a BCS At-Large Bid, but I doubt it. There will likely be At-large teams from Pac-10, Big Twelve, SEC, and MAYBE Big Ten (if OSU loses to Mich), which leaves little room for us. That being said, its a possibility. If not, we could plummet to the Peach bowl or even lower since the Gator bowl does NOT like playing the loser of a game that was JUST played in the same stadium again.

... we lose one game (Maryland or Miami), but still win the ACC Champ. game:
This would lead to an Orange bowl bid, but also might put us in a position to be an unwitting supporter of a non-BCS school getting into a BCS spot. If we lose to Unranked Maryland or Miami, we would certainly be towards the bottom of the top 20, which could help Boise State or Hawaii get a bid.

... we lose Clemson:
Clemson still holds its own card to the ACC Champ game, we could lose that game, and be 10-2 ending the regular season, this could drop us to a lower tier bowl due to ACC's rule about bowl selection, aka the one-loss-gap rule. Basically, if there is a one conference loss gap, the bowls can select however they wish, which is why were were in Boise two years ago, and Charlotte last year. In my mind, this is Worst Case Scenario for a two loss BC team.

... we lose two or more games:
Don't expect to see us anywhere better than Boise, Nashville, or San Francisco. Just because we had a great start to the season doesn't make Bowl committees think we travel better, to do that we have to *gasp* travel better.

1 comment:

  1. As far as the bowls go, even though the Gator Bowl is New Year's Day, the Peach Bowl gets first pick of ACC teams as it is technically reserved for the 2nd place team in conference. And even then, the Peach is on New Year's Eve in Atlanta, so it's not like we'd playing a couple days before Christmas. I know that Jan. 1 is the magic date, but Peach is still a big bowl game.